{"id":10922,"date":"2026-11-02T18:38:42","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T18:38:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/?p=10922"},"modified":"2026-11-02T18:38:45","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T18:38:45","slug":"debilitamiento-de-la-demanda-anticipa-nuevas-caidas-en-las-tarifas-spot-del-sector-portacontenedor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/en\/debilitamiento-de-la-demanda-anticipa-nuevas-caidas-en-las-tarifas-spot-del-sector-portacontenedor\/","title":{"rendered":"Debilitamiento de la demanda anticipa nuevas ca\u00eddas en las tarifas spot del sector portacontenedor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">02\/11\/26 &#8211; <strong>Los fletes del Transpac\u00edfico retroceden en un escenario de ajustes de capacidad y tensiones geopol\u00edticas<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Las tarifas&nbsp;<em>spot<\/em>&nbsp;del transporte mar\u00edtimo de contenedores comienzan a mostrar se\u00f1ales de debilitamiento tras mantenerse elevadas durante octubre, especialmente en las rutas del Transpac\u00edfico. Aunque la demanda de importaciones estadounidenses, la congesti\u00f3n portuaria y las restricciones de capacidad han contribuido a sostener los fletes, las perspectivas apuntan a una correcci\u00f3n gradual, en un escenario condicionado por tensiones geopol\u00edticas, cambios en las rutas mar\u00edtimas e incertidumbre comercial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seg\u00fan&nbsp;<em>Drewry<\/em>, su World Container Index (WCI) retrocedi\u00f3 3% durante la semana terminada el 29 de octubre, situ\u00e1ndose en US$4.429 por contenedor de 40 pies (FEU), principalmente por las ca\u00eddas registradas en el Transpac\u00edfico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"798\" height=\"599\" src=\"https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/aumento-de-spot-.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10923\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/aumento-de-spot-.jpeg 798w, https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/aumento-de-spot--300x225.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/aumento-de-spot--768x576.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/aumento-de-spot--16x12.jpeg 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 798px) 100vw, 798px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En esta ruta, los fletes para&nbsp;<strong>Shangh\u00e1i-Los \u00c1ngeles<\/strong>&nbsp;disminuyeron 6%, hasta US$7.514\/FEU, mientras que&nbsp;<strong>Shangh\u00e1i-Nueva York<\/strong>&nbsp;retrocedi\u00f3 5%, hasta US$9.631\/FEU. La consultora anticipa nuevas bajas, considerando que la Federaci\u00f3n Nacional del Retail de Estados Unidos (NRF) proyecta una disminuci\u00f3n mensual de 11% en las importaciones mar\u00edtimas estadounidenses durante noviembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No obstante,&nbsp;<em>Drewry<\/em>&nbsp;advierte que las l\u00edneas navieras contin\u00faan administrando la oferta. Para la esta semana se anunciaron seis itinerarios cancelados (<em>blank sailings<\/em>) en el Transpac\u00edfico, frente a cinco durante la pasada, reflejando restricciones de capacidad que podr\u00edan moderar las ca\u00eddas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fortaleza relativa del Transpac\u00edfico<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El informe de octubre de&nbsp;<em>Maritime Strategies International (MSI)<\/em>&nbsp;confirma que los fletes Transpac\u00edfico mantienen una posici\u00f3n comparativamente elevada. Entre fines de septiembre y octubre, las tarifas desde Lejano Oriente hacia la Costa Oeste de EE. UU. (USWC) disminuyeron apenas 0,4%, hasta los US$8.374\/FEU, aproximadamente US$3.000 por encima del promedio de los \u00faltimos cinco a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Esta resistencia responde parcialmente al dinamismo de las importaciones estadounidenses. Seg\u00fan datos de conocimientos de embarque (BLs) citados por&nbsp;<em>MSI<\/em>, los vol\u00famenes del Transpac\u00edfico hacia el este aumentaron 16,3% interanual en septiembre, despu\u00e9s de crecer 2,3% en agosto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La consultora mantiene perspectivas moderadamente optimistas para esta ruta, proyectando un crecimiento interanual de entre 3% y 6% durante el cuarto trimestre de 2026 y el primer semestre de 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sin embargo, anticipa una convergencia parcial de las tarifas de las principales rutas durante noviembre y diciembre, impulsada principalmente por descensos en el Transpac\u00edfico, mientras los fletes Asia-Europa permanecer\u00edan relativamente estables antes de comenzar a retroceder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por su parte&nbsp;<em>Judah Levine<\/em>, director de Investigaci\u00f3n de&nbsp;<em>Freightos<\/em>, tambi\u00e9n identifica se\u00f1ales contradictorias. Aunque los fletes Transpac\u00edfico hab\u00edan aumentado hace dos semanas, con un alza de 9% hacia la Costa Este de EE. UU. (USEC) se\u00f1al\u00f3 que algunos transitarios observan \u201cse\u00f1ales de enfriamiento de la demanda y una mayor disponibilidad de espacio\u201d, anticipando una moderaci\u00f3n estacional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Disrupciones y reconfiguraci\u00f3n de rutas<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En&nbsp;<strong>Asia-Europa<\/strong>,&nbsp;<em>Drewry<\/em>&nbsp;registr\u00f3 un incremento de 1% en las tarifas&nbsp;<strong>Shangh\u00e1i-R\u00f3terdam<\/strong>, hasta US$3.686\/FEU, mientras&nbsp;<strong>Shangh\u00e1i-G\u00e9nova<\/strong>&nbsp;permaneci\u00f3 estable en US$4.151\/FEU. Las l\u00edneas navieras preparan aumentos tarifarios para noviembre, aunque su sostenibilidad resulta incierta ante la debilidad de la demanda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Paralelamente, el retorno progresivo de los portacontenedores al&nbsp;<strong>Mar Rojo<\/strong>&nbsp;est\u00e1 modificando el equilibrio de capacidad.&nbsp;<em>MSI&nbsp;<\/em>estima que m\u00e1s del 60% de los zarpes Asia-Europa ya transitan por esa v\u00eda, reduciendo la necesidad de buques asociada a los desv\u00edos por el cabo de Buena Esperanza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No obstante, persisten riesgos significativos.&nbsp;<em>Drewry&nbsp;<\/em>inform\u00f3 que los tr\u00e1nsitos por el&nbsp;<strong>Canal de Suez<\/strong>alcanzaron 62 buques durante la \u00faltima semana, su m\u00e1ximo semanal del a\u00f1o, mientras las interrupciones en el Estrecho de Ormuz contin\u00faan afectando la navegaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A ello se suman la&nbsp;<strong>congesti\u00f3n en puertos asi\u00e1ticos<\/strong>&nbsp;y los efectos de los tifones.<em>&nbsp;MSI<\/em>&nbsp;estima que la congesti\u00f3n absorbi\u00f3 aproximadamente 3,1 millones de TEUs de capacidad durante julio y agosto, contribuyendo a sostener las tarifas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finalmente, la incertidumbre sobre las tarifas portuarias estadounidenses aplicables a buques vinculados con China y las investigaciones comerciales bajo la Secci\u00f3n 301 introduce nuevas variables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Como sintetiza&nbsp;<em>Drewry<\/em>, \u201c<em>la debilidad de la demanda, la gesti\u00f3n de capacidad por las l\u00edneas navieras, los posibles recargos y la evoluci\u00f3n de la pol\u00edtica comercial estadounidense seguir\u00e1n influyendo en las tarifas de flete durante las pr\u00f3ximas semanas<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>02\/11\/26 &#8211; Los fletes del Transpac\u00edfico retroceden en un escenario de ajustes de capacidad y tensiones geopol\u00edticas Las tarifas&nbsp;spot&nbsp;del transporte mar\u00edtimo de contenedores comienzan a mostrar se\u00f1ales de debilitamiento tras mantenerse elevadas durante octubre, especialmente en las rutas del Transpac\u00edfico. Aunque la demanda de importaciones estadounidenses, la congesti\u00f3n portuaria y las restricciones de capacidad han [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":10923,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sin-categoria"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Debilitamiento de la demanda anticipa nuevas ca\u00eddas en las tarifas spot del sector portacontenedor - JPEV Logistics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jpevlogistics.com\/en\/debilitamiento-de-la-demanda-anticipa-nuevas-caidas-en-las-tarifas-spot-del-sector-portacontenedor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Debilitamiento de la demanda anticipa nuevas ca\u00eddas en las tarifas spot del sector portacontenedor - JPEV Logistics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"02\/11\/26 &#8211; Los fletes del Transpac\u00edfico retroceden en un escenario de ajustes de capacidad y tensiones geopol\u00edticas Las tarifas&nbsp;spot&nbsp;del transporte mar\u00edtimo de contenedores comienzan a mostrar se\u00f1ales de debilitamiento tras mantenerse elevadas durante octubre, especialmente en las rutas del Transpac\u00edfico. 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